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Binance ETHUSDT 1h Trend Prediction

Jul 18, 2025 23:10
1h
Fail
Prediction Result
AI-predicted market trend and price target

Bearish

Confidence Level: 78%

Target Price

3460-3500

Mark Price

3519.3

Actual Price

3548.11

Prediction Result

Fail

Analysis Basis:

  • Bollinger Band percent_b is only 0.066479, with price close to the lower band; short-term oversold, but no obvious reversal signs yet.
  • MACD bars are negative and further expanding, with dif and dea both trending downward, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.
  • RSI6 is 24.11, RSI14 is 33.10, both in the low range, with clear bias towards bearish momentum.
  • All three lines of KDJ are at low levels, with the J line crossing below K and D, indicating that the weak trend has not improved.
  • In the DMI indicators, -DI is higher than +DI and ADX is relatively low, reflecting a downward trend with weak momentum.
  • Active buy-sell ratio is below 1, showing a generally passive selling market; while the count of bullish versus bearish accounts and the large traders' long-short positions are extremely skewed, current market behavior does not follow this bias (possibly large traders are preemptively positioning or locking in positions). Instead, the short-term momentum is weakening.
  • Price is far below the short- and medium-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20 are above the current price), indicating significant technical resistance to a rebound.
Detailed Analysis
In-depth AI analysis and interpretation of market conditions

ETHUSDT has recently experienced a significant rise, followed by a clear correction phase. The lower Bollinger Band is approaching, and the percent_b is extremely low, indicating short-term oversold conditions, but no strong rebound signals have appeared. The MACD bearish momentum has enlarged, and the short-term adjustment trend continues. The RSI across all periods is in the weak zone, especially RSI6 and RSI14, which have approached below 30, demonstrating extreme short-term weakness with potential for a technical rebound, although market sentiment remains relatively cautious. Bull-bear data shows divergence: institutional holdings are extremely skewed towards long positions, but active trading data, price action, and mainstream technical indicators all point to a bearish outlook. This suggests that the short-term bulls have not yet gained effective advantage, and caution is needed regarding large traders potentially inducing a fake rally or locking in profits early. Retail traders' sentiment currently dominates the market. The KDJ indicator shows a persistent death cross at low levels, reflecting market inability to push higher, with a high probability of oscillating downwards. The ATR and overall volatility are neutral, indicating that extreme unilateral moves are unlikely in the short term, favoring a weak decline seeking stabilization. Analysis of the candlestick chart shows that after a substantial upward move, ETH has entered a phase of profit-taking and consolidation, with no clear bottoming bullish candlestick or key support levels observed. The short-term trend mainly involves weak consolidation and impulsive decline. Overall, within the next hour, the market is expected to continue weak oscillation with a downward bias, targeting the 3460-3500 zone. A breakdown below this range or further decline may occur, but a volume-supported stabilization is necessary before a rebound. The recommended approach is to avoid chasing shorts; aggressive traders may consider short-term long positions once stabilization signals appear, but otherwise, it's prudent to remain on the sidelines.

Technical Indicators Analysis

  • RSI:rsi6(24.1128) rsi12(34.3067) rsi14(33.0972)
  • MACD:dif(9.6553) dea(27.4243) macd(-35.538)
  • MA:ma5(3535.83) ma10(3535.83) ma20(3593.1)
  • Boll:up(3677.79) mid(3593.1) down(3508.41)

Market Indicators

  • Volume:10192534.318 (24h)
  • Volatility:0.69%
  • Long/Short Ratio:1.3436
AI Model Information

Used Model

gpt-4.1

Prediction Date

Jul 18, 2025 23:10

Prediction ID

binance-ethusdt-1h-forecast-2025-upd1322

Disclaimer: This prediction is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is high-risk; invest with caution. Past prediction results do not guarantee future performance.