Binance ETHUSDT 15m Trend Prediction

ETHUSDT experienced a significant surge followed by noticeable retracement over the past few cycles, with amplitude turning negative and the price gradually approaching the lower Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band width of 0.0406 has slightly contracted, suggesting potential for increased volatility in the future. All short-term moving averages are arranged in a bearish configuration, with the current price falling below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and these averages exhibiting a downward trend. MA50 and MA200 remain well above the current price, indicating a weakening overall bullish trend. Although MACD shows a slight bullish crossover, the main indicator remains in the negative zone, with no clear rebound signals observed. The probability of short-term long setups remains low. While the KDJ J value is high, the K and D lines have not yet followed, and a reversal has not formed, suggesting a high likelihood of ongoing short-term downward momentum. The RSI across multiple cycles is below 50, especially the 14 and 24 periods which are below 30. While the short-term condition is approaching oversold levels, there is little strength in a rebound. Despite a high active long-short ratio, analysis of trading volume and large holder positions indicates that funds may be exiting in the short term or phase, increasing the risk of further downside moves. The DMI indicates a highly evident bearish dominance, with a high ADX signifying strong trend continuation. Coupled with relatively low current volatility, the potential for a rebound is limited. Within the support and resistance structure, 4600 and below serve as short-term bullish defense lines. Falling below these levels would trigger a retest of 4540 and even lower zones. The probability of encountering resistance during a rebound is high, with overall downward momentum remaining dominant. Operational recommendations favor observing and taking cautious short positions. If the 4600 level is breached, further testing of the 4540 level is likely. In cases of extreme short-term rebounds, caution is advised against chasing high, with strict stop-loss enforcement essential.