Binance BTCUSDT 15m Trend Prediction

BTCUSDT over the past 400 fifteen-minute periods exhibits a clear unilateral downward trend, with recent cycles' prices breaking through the lower Bollinger Band without any formation of a halt-down structure. The MACD indicators remain deeply negative, with no signs of volume contraction or bullish divergence, indicating a very low probability of rebound and significant short-term downward momentum risk. Both RSI and KDJ are in extreme oversold zones, but combined with the overall bearish moving average alignment and Bollinger Band breakdown signals, it is not advisable to guess a bottom recklessly. All moving averages above form death crosses and diverge downward, showing a strong short-term bearish trend; any slight rebound will likely be suppressed by the moving averages, limiting sustained upward movement. DMI and ADX both indicate a strong trending market, dominated by bearish momentum. The active buy-sell ratio is close to 1 but still biased towards the bearish side. Although large traders' long-short positions are above 1, the capital effects driven by these institutional players still favor the bears, suggesting that short-term downward momentum has not been fully exhausted. Mainstream support levels lack effective confirmation; in the short term, further tests around the 104,000–103,800 support zone are expected. Without volume absorption, there is a risk of breaking below this area. Current advice is to avoid bottom-fishing and to primarily trade with the trend (selling on rebounds), with a stop-loss set above 104,800. For conservative trading, attention should be paid to any significant volume increase or bottoming structures within the 104,000–103,800 range before considering short-term oversold rebound trades. Do not force a bottom until a V-shaped reversal or bullish engulfing pattern appears.